Jul 29
2011

The nation was balanced precariously between the darkness of the Great Depression on one side and the storms of war in Europe and the Pacific on the other. It was a critical time in the shaping of this nation and the world, equal to the revolution of 1776 and the perils of the Civil War. Once again the American people understood the magnitude of the challenge, the importance of an unparalleled national commitment, and, most of all, the certainty that only one resolution was acceptable. The nation turned to its young to carry the heaviest burden, to fight in enemy territory and to keep the home front secure and productive. These young men and women were eager for the assignment. They understood what was required of them, and they willingly volunteered for their duty.
–Tom Brokaw

Warren Buffet said in an interview on September 24, 2008 that we were experiencing an economic Pearl Harbor. He implored Congress to pass the TARP bill. Five days later they vetoed the bill and the Dow Jones declined 780 points or 7.8% that afternoon. The bill was passed shortly thereafter. Our financial markets were invaded and Washington responded by waging a war of rhetoric and reform on Wall Street. The issue I take with this statement is that Washington gave Wall Street the ammunition to wager the war. The stock market also possesses a different mentality from that period in time; its not the market it once was. Its Las Vegas on steroids and the house has the odds inits favor. The Dodd Frank Act has the making of a reform our financial system requires and a resemblance of a new deal.

Ask any physician and they will testify that at some point you have got to remove the life support and determine if the patient can survive on its own breath. America has been on monetary life support since the Fall of 2008; the car wreck was of a severe nature and it required medical attention at the time.

While hiding behind the beard of hawkish vernacular, the FOMC has printed and pumped massive amounts of money into the financial system. That liquidity, while providing a rising tide for virtually every asset class, came at a cost. The worldwide response, verbally and structurally, was to shock the patient back to life.
–Todd Harrison

The problem is we have not implemented a cure, andsadly this is seen as austerity. Its of the communitys belief that the government sees the procedure as too painful. Maybe if we hold out for hope we can will our way through the pain and avoid outright sacrifice. That is precisely what the greatest generation did not do. They took the procedure and added personal will to get them through the darkness of debt defeat, but our morale and motivation has lost its momentum.

This months widely watched Michigan consumer confidence came in at 63.8, the lowest level since March 2009 on increasing pessimism over falling income, as goes the consumer so goes GDP, and rising unemployment. An April 21, 2011 CBS News/New York Times poll found that 27 percent of Americans support raising the debt limit, while 63 percent oppose. The underlying message tells me they are more fed up with the Fed and our Government leaders. In fact it was also demonstrated in the lack of voter interest in the 2008 Presidential election when only 42% of eligible Americans voted. Not passing this legislation is not an option for the short-term.

Interest rates are at record lows and have been for 32 months. Not since World War IIhave interest rates been this accommodative for such an extended period. At $14.46 trillion the US debt stands at approximately 100% of the previous 12 month GDP; the US hit 120% of GDP shortly after WW2. The betterment of such accommodation never materialized. Monetary policy procedures (QE1 and QE2) have done little to revive job growth and expand GDP –currently at 9.2% unemployment and 1.9% GDP growth. The government has thrown trillions of tax payer dollars at the problem and we have little to show for it, meanwhile manipulating equity prices through the issuance of caustic debt. Nobody is bigger than the market and we are marching towards a debt infused date with destiny. The risk to counterparty purchasers of US Treasury debt is a stealth default through devaluation of the US dollar (down 13% since June 2010).

It is my belief that we are in the midst of a stock market rally in the context of a bear market. It is a stock market that is climbing a wall of worry and has higher prices on the horizon. The bullish audience will argue corporate fundamentals are strong, and they are. The Samp;P is expected to grow its profits by 19% in 2011. My view is a bit conservative and calls for $96 on Samp;P earnings with a 14.7x multiple –providing a target of 1411 by year end. But the crowds risk aversion has left them on the sidelines. The issue I take is that at some point, when the crowd has bought back in, it will mark an end to the markets climb and I expect it to be a vicious fall. We are in the late innings of opportunity to chart a new course and allow the free market to reign.

What are the measures needed to resuscitate our global posture?

Trackback  •  Posted in Monetary  


Jul 29
2011

This summer ArtsBeat is inviting members of the theater world to contribute to the weekly Theater Talkback column, alternating with the critics Ben Brantley and Charles Isherwood. Recent posts have examined the challenges of casting the role of Fanny Brice in “Funny Girl” and unusual settings for Shakespeare stagings. This week, Laura Motta, a New York-based writer, editor and blogger (her blog signature is Lucky) writes about the value of letting shows speak for themselves.

There are the usual pre-theater announcements: Turn off your cellphones. No photos allowed. Unwrap candy now, not later. But lately I’ve heard a couple that left me unsettled, and at two very different kinds of performances.

The first preceded an early-January preview of the embattled “Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark.” Before the show, a producer came onstage and warned the audience not about noisy candy wrappers or distracting camera flashes, but about the negative press the show had been getting. We were reminded that this was a preview performance and, as such, it wasn’t fair to view it as a finished work. We were also asked to ignore the “unfair coverage” the show had received in the press.

The second happened before a workshop performance of the new Duncan Sheik/Steven Sater musical “The Nightingale,” part of the Powerhouse Theater’s summer series at Vassar College. In that case, the audience was reminded that we were seeing an unfinished work, but with the added caveat that we were not to blog, tweet, or otherwise converse online about it.

Talk about a buzz kill in more ways than one.

I understand the value of the preview process, and it’s our blog’s policy to play by the rules: We generally don’t post reviews until previews have ended. But besides just being a total drag, the announcements, I couldn’t help but feel, infringed on something really basic: They wrecked the magic.

Musicals, like opera, require the suspension of disbelief in ways that almost no other kind of entertainment does. Preshow lectures don’t do much to preserve that. They took me out of the moment and distracted me from the work. And there was a more sinister implication, too: That the audience is not capable of fairly judging a show on its own.

It’s worth mentioning that in both cases I paid for my ticket. “The Nightingale” was even part of Vassar’s subscription series. But theater creators don’t see how that entitles me to my own thoughts and opinions. Check out Julie Taymor’s recent interviews and her implication that negative buzz during “Spider-Man” previews — and not the quality of the show itself — contributed to her eventual departure from the show. I’m happy to play sounding board to new work and I understand that my reactions, like those of others, are useful to creators. But a paying audience is not a focus group. Nothing prevents me from sharing my feelings about the work on Twitter or over coffee.

And who trusts a show that needs a disclaimer? To me, that kind of announcement just made it sound like the producers were hedging their bets in case the shows were bad. In the case of “Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark,” in particular, the producer’s apprehension was pretty understandable. But will we eventually have to sit through this kind of announcement before every preview and workshop? Will theatergoers of the future turn up 10 minutes late, like movie patrons who prefer to skip the pre-show ads?

These kinds of warnings are not about the medium. Theater producers don’t hate Twitter or blogging. Every show on Broadway uses the Internet to share positive comments and reviews. But producers are desperate to control the frequency and tone of negative discourse, and they can’t have it both ways. Younger theater fans, like the ones who read our site, blog and re-blog production photos and reviews at lightning speed. For a show in its earliest stages, that exposure could be vital in building a future audience.

For example, if I were free to share my honest opinions about “The Nightingale” on our blog, I might have said that, for a new work performed without staging or costumes, it showed great promise. That the retelling of Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy tale included a number of beautiful songs and seemed surprisingly well formed for a piece in development. Our readers, many of whom adore Mr. Sheik and Mr. Sater’s first musical, “Spring Awakening,” would find much to enjoy in it, and would probably be among those lining the sidewalk for tickets — if the show ever makes it beyond its development stages, that is.

I hope it does. I also hope that the people in charge at the Powerhouse Theater — and across the industry — recognize that letting the work speak for itself can have real value. It builds credibility for a show. Plus, it spares me something I never expect at the theater — a pre-curtain lecture.

How do you feel about pre-show announcements at the theater? If you’re asked not to tweet or blog about a show you’ve just seen, do you listen?

This article was adapted from a post entitled “Stop Telling Me What to Think About Your Show: A Manifesto of Love and Annoyance.”

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